Political Business Cycles: Analysis of The Fragile Five

Abstract

The Political Business Cycles Theory explores the effects of the efforts of economic actors to maximize their benefits on the economy. In this study, within the framework of the traditional opportunistic model, the five-term general elections held in the fragile five countries between 1991 and 2019 will be analyzed. The aim of the study is to test the existence of the election cycle in the general elections to be held in the fragile five countries. Whether the fragility in these countries is the effect of political fluctuations in the perspective of the inferences obtained from the test will make the difference of this study. Macroeconomic variables to be addressed in general elections; It consists of inflation rate, unemployment rate, large money growth, economic growth rate and increase in public expenditures. The results obtained in this period; shows that the election cycle did not occur.